Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
