Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
